It's been a water year with ups and downs. Going from very dry conditions one month to very wet the next.
An area of high pressure continues to sit in the Pacific, deflecting the majority of the storms either to the north or to the east of Nevada.A wobble of the ridge to the west or to the east, can give us a big change in the weather. All we need is a path for moisture to move in here and good rain or snow is possible.
In spring, the weather pattern begins to change as the sun angle gets higher in the sky as well. Fall and spring are known as transitional seasons, with huge swings in temperatures. It’s not unheard of for it to snow or be warm in the springtime. We can also drop 20 or 30 degrees in 24 hours. This is why it is typically so windy in spring as well.
The long-term forecast is challenging, but there are ways to have an idea of what could happen. The GFS model goes out roughly two weeks.
Meteorologists can also look at water temperatures and blocking trends throughout the globe to get clues about what could happen down to the road. Meteorological spring includes the months of March, April, and May. This is when the climate books shows a warming trend but it’s not hot enough to be summer.
Astronomical spring deals with the earth rotating around the sun and the amount of light the earth receives.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, we have an equal chance of having a drier or wetter than normal spring. The forecast could go either way with temperatures too. The extended forecast for the month is leaning towards cooler than normal, but there will probably be some mild days thrown in the mix as well. The odds of having a wetter than normal March is tough to predict. The Climate Prediction Center says there is an equal chance of having a drier or wetter than normal March. In my opinion, the odds of us having a miracle March are quite low. I’d only give it a 30 percent chance. I don’t think it will be completely dry, but there won’t be any big storms with a lot of substance to really help our snowpack either. The most precipitation ever recorded in March at the Reno Airport since the 1930’s was 2.87 inches. For Tahoe City it’s just over 19.5 inches.
