Meteorological winter goes from December through February, and for the third winter in a row, the forecast is looking quieter than normal. We will likely still have a few storms move through, with periods of cold temperatures, but the winter season as a whole is looking less active, with less snow.
According to the Climate Prediction Center both Northern Nevada and California have an equal chance of being wetter than normal. Temperatures are leaning towards warmer than normal. So not a strong possibility of being super warm, but it probably won’t be brutally cold either.
Just like last year, La Niña will be in place, keeping the southwest drier than normal. A strong La Niña will lift the jet stream towards the Pacific Northwest bringing them more rain and snow. This puts us in the middle, where it could go either way. La Niña is expected to be weak this winter, which gives the jet stream more flexibility to move around. This means an occasional storm could still move through the region, helping our snow pack.
We'd have to have a really good winter season to make a big dent in our drought situation. According to the Climate Prediction Center, our drought situation will either stay the same or get worse.
The National Weather Service says there has only been two other times that our area has seen La Niña patterns set up back to back. The 2000-2001 winter season is a year to compare our current forecast with. Not only was it the third La Niña in a row, but it was also a weak La Niña. Just like this upcoming winter season is supposed to be.
This was an interesting year, because the Pacific Northwest saw a water deficit, despite it being a La Niña year. Weak La Niñas are harder to predict. Temperatures also stayed near normal during this time. Northern California also saw a drier than normal winter season from 1975-1976. Which was also a La Niña year for the third time in a row. The big difference being it was a strong La Niña opposed to weak.
Put all of the facts together, and the winter forecast is looking drier and slightly warmer than normal, but not all hope is lost.
