Hot air balloons need light winds to launch, and it does not take much wind for there to be cancellations. Wind speeds are usually lighter in the morning, but they will already be gusting over 15 mph at sunrise Saturday morning. Thursday will be the best day for the balloons as temperatures will be in the 60’s with light winds around sunrise. There is a very slight chance of a stray shower, but more than likely it will be dry.
There will be some wind on Friday as well, gusting between 5-15 mph in the morning. Unfortunately, this means the balloons may have a hard time launching on Friday too. Temperatures will be a little cooler on Friday with mostly clear skies. Wind gusts will be in the mid to upper 30’s Friday afternoon, leading to at least critical fire danger.
Saturday will be windy with gusts exceeding 50 mph in wind prone areas. Down sloping winds can’t be ruled out either. An area of low pressure will dig south on Friday and over the weekend, cooling us down and tightening the pressure gradient. Reno will be going from low 90’s on Thursday, to the upper 80’s on Friday, and 70’s over the weekend. Wind is related to temperature and pressure differences.
Cooler air does help lower the fire threat, but if winds are strong and relative humidity values are low, the fire threat remains. This will be the case on Friday and Saturday. There will also be lots of chop on area lakes and turbulence during flights. The 700mb chart is a good place to look for gusty winds, and both the GFS and Euro shows gusty winds beginning on Friday and especially on Saturday.