Our next heat wave will likely be the longest and hottest stretch we’ve seen so far this summer. Triple digits are likely, and the heat risk will be in the moderate range. Staying fairly warm at night as well. The air is very dry and dry air heats up very quickly. It also cools off quick at night.
As the ridge expands westward, temperatures will climb and the flow will still come out of the southwest. There will be a trough to our northwest, allowing for southwesterly flow to stay intact. If there was only a ridge, then it would make it easier for moisture to move in. However, this time it will be hot and dry.
Reno usually sees several days of triple digit heat each year, but this year it’s only happened a handful of times. Three times during the month of July and once in June. The longest stretch of triple digits is only twice so far this year, and happened on July 23rd and 24th. Our first 100 degree day was on June 16th. This coming heat wave could put us in the triple digits for at least several days.
While confidence is growing as models align, the forecast tends to be tweaked here and there several days out. Trends can be picked out though, and it is trending hotter than average and dry. This ridge is very stubborn. Records are within reach beginning on Friday. Doesn’t look like we’ll smash any records, but we could at least match them. What is more certain is that it will be hot.
Ensembles are also showing the heat sticking around. Ensembles are basically more members of the same model. Models spit out numbers for temperatures, precipitation, ect. after running numerous calculations. Ensembles are run by the same model showing more outcomes. Sometimes the ensembles show the same thing as the main, deterministic model, and other times they differ.
At this stage in the forecast, I am confident to say it will be hot for a while, with triple digits likely by the end of the week. How long the heat wave with triple digits sticks around is trending into next week, but it’s too far out to give an exact number. It’s been a fairly mild summer so far, but that won’t be the case this weekend.