There are pros and cons with Thursday’s forecast. Rain is great to fight fires, but too much at once leads to flash flooding and debris flows. Thunderstorms can also produce gusty outflow winds that go in a variety of directions, gusting over 40 mph. Lightning that also strikes outside of rain cores can cause new fires as well. Moisture is high overall, especially south of I-80 and along and east of 395/580. Higher relative values helps fire fighting efforts as well. Outside of thunderstorms, wind speeds tend to lower when it is raining.
Storms are firing earlier on Thursday, showers are already developing in the Reno area as of 11:30 am. Stronger storms are south of I-80, but with a good amount of moisture and instability they will strengthen quickly in Reno as well. There is a marginal risk for severe weather throughout much of the state of Nevada on Thursday. This means that some storms could turn severe, producing wind gusts of at least 58 mph or hail one inch in diameter. The higher the risk on the scale, the more severe storms you’ll see. Marginal is one step above no severe weather, and while this doesn’t sound very impressive, this does not happen very often in Nevada.
Multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have already been issued, with a warning in place for Douglas County through 1 pm due to radar indicated nickel sized hail and 60 mph wind gusts. The storm is nearly stationary and is pouring over the Minden and Gardnerville area.
The Flood Watch for much of western Nevada goes through Thursday night, due to pockets of flash flooding. Burn scars, current fires, steep terrain, and poor drainage areas are of the highest concern. Flash flooding will be the main concern with any storms that do develop. The storm threat goes through 8 pm, but the strongest storms will be between 1-5 pm.
CAPE values, or food for the storm is plentiful for our area, allowing the storms to strengthen. There is also plenty of moisture to work with as well. There is a 70% chance of rain over the Stallion Fire and a 60% chance over the Bug Fire. While rain is good, outflow winds can spread a fire too.