Lots of people online are posting weather forecasts without any experience, and that can be dangerous. Long term forecasts are better at seeing trends than exact forecasts. They often flip flop between model runs and models themselves. A prime example of this is earlier this week when a model was showing a tropical storm moving towards southern California.
Not knowing what the weather will be like a week out can be stressful if you have outdoor plans, but the truth is the forecast gets less accurate with time. By day six and seven meteorologists are just looking at trends. Meteorologists look at models to give us an idea of what will happen, and that far out they tend to flip flop between runs and models themselves. The more the models agree, the more confidence we can have. However, even if there is some agreement, it is wise to look at trends opposed to exact predictions that far out. Even when it comes to paths of storms.
On Monday the GFS model was showing a decaying tropical storm moving towards southern California, which is very rare. The model was an outlier as well, with most of the models/ensembles not taking the decaying storm towards California. You may have seen on social media some people capitalizing on the one or two models or ensembles showing the storm heading towards California, even though it was not the most sensible or popular model to believe. In other words, it was an outlier, straying from the majority of the spaghetti plots.
Guess what, by late Tuesday morning, the GFS model came into agreement with the other models, keeping the storm away from the California coastline. Most of the ensemble members now keeps it away as well. Imagine if we came on air saying a tropical storm was headed towards California, to only the next day say never mind. A more wise and honest description would be that we are watching for the influx of more moisture moving in by Sunday. There is the possibility of seeing some rain early next week, but how much is still to be determined.
The forecast can be pretty accurate up to three days. Meteorologists can verify what is happening in real time with the models. It will be cooler than average this week with highs only in the 70’s and lows in the mid to upper 40’s. It will be windy at times too, but relative humidity values will gradually go up as well.