The odds of having a miracle March this year are not high. I would give us a 40% chance. Tahoe City would need about 60 more inches of snow to reach an average winter's snowpack. The Truckee Basin is at 54% of average for the snowpack, and Tahoe is at 53. Some people are keeping their fingers crossed. The photo above is from Pat Cantwell at Squaw Valley.
"I think we could use a little bit more snow. Not ready for it to be spring yet,” said South Reno resident Brian Pecheniuk.
We have had a miracle March before. A couple years ago Tahoe City got 102.5 inches of snow in one month. Reno got nearly 20 inches. This time around the models and the overall weather pattern is pointing towards something different. Keep in mind the GFS model only goes out about 10 days and the Euro is less. Long term forecasting is challenging and certainty goes way down after three days.
Like February, there will be a lot of mild days with some short lived cold spells too. Some storms will move through the region, but they won't produce a lot of snow in the mountains. Expect less than two feet each. Our snowpack will improve slightly, but not enough to reach normal. The storms will also be wind makers.
The average high for this time of year is about 54 degrees with a low of around 31. We’ve been running about ten degrees above normal lately, hitting 60 degrees 12 times out of the past 25. While I don’t think we’ll see that many 60 degree days in March, I also don’t think we’ll be in the 40’s all month long either. It would probably be a shock to the system if we did.
"I actually really love winter but when the winter does not really come as strongly as in other years, I'm kind of like let's all be done with it,” said Reno resident Laurie Coombs.
The Arctic Oscillation is a sign that temperatures won’t get too extreme. When it’s positive cold air tends to stay contained over areas north of the United States. The graph below shows the positive trend over the past couple of months and stays positive through the beginning of March. Decreasing slightly next month.
