Technically, we’re still in a drought, so some are hoping for a white Christmas more this year than years past. With the storm gates open, the possibility is there.
In order to have a White Christmas there needs to be at least an inch of snow on the ground, but it does not have to snow on Christmas day itself. Timing and temperature forecasts will be crucial this year if we can have a white Christmas. The forecast is tricky for the valley floor, but there is high confidence that the foothills will have a White Christmas. For the lowest elevations there is about a 90% chance there will be some snow, and a 70% chance that there will be enough to count for a White Christmas. We just need an inch for it to count.
Looking at climate, the Sierra of course sees a White Christmas the majority of the time, and the valley is closer to a 10-25% chance. The northeast corner of Nevada has a slightly higher chance than the Truckee Meadows.
Going back through 2012, Reno has only had a White Christmas at the airport a couple of times, but we've seen snow on Christmas several times since 2012. Most of the time it's not enough to count with just a dusting. 14.9 inches is the most snow Reno has ever seen at the airport on Christmas day, set back in 1971.
27 inches is the most Tahoe City has ever seen on Christmas. Christmas is still several days away, so the forecast could still change. For now, there is a strong possibility there will be some snow, but how much is still being ironed out in the lowest elevations.
