Usually thunderstorms develop during the afternoon from the heat of the day, but we could see some thunderstorms in the valley and up through the Pine Nut Range Sunday night. The storms will be moving fairly quickly and will be capable of producing gusty winds and frequent lightning. With them moving quickly, rain totals won’t be as high as they could be. More moisture will be available Monday, so rain totals will be higher then.
Thunderstorms tend to travel along the jet stream in our area. This means the location of the jet stream is crucial to whether we get rain or not. For right now, the jet stream is located to where the outside is just up to our northwest. It will begin to move farther east overnight, allowing the storms to travel up the Pine Nut Range. There is a 40 percent chance for rain tonight in the valley, and slightly higher in places like Fernley. The remnants of an old hurricane are located off shore of California. The computer models shows the subtropical moisture moving into our area as well.
Rain totals will be light Sunday night, but they could be much higher Monday night. The air will be much more saturated Monday afternoon with higher precipitable water values. Precipitable water tells us how much moisture is in the air, through a vertical column above a fixed point. The storms will also be moving slower. While we won’t see as many storms Monday afternoon, the ones we do see will be stronger and produce more rain.
To get rid of the smoke, we need it to rain over the fires in California. However, thunderstorms are usually more spotty than widespread. The rain can help to disperse the smoke, but in the case of allergies, it can also make the particulates smaller and easier to inhale. Thunderstorms can produce gusty winds, coming out in a variety of directions. So sometimes thunderstorms can help our air quality, and other times it can make it worse. What will help the smoke more than anything is the direction of the wind. A southerly wind will help get rid of some of the smoke because there are fewer fires in that direction. Temperatures will be in the mid 90’s Monday, and lower 90’s for the rest of the week. Lows will be in the 60’s. Have a great day.
