The winter outlook for the upcoming season has been posted, and it shows an equal chance of having an above or below year in terms of precipitation in our area. The outlook favors a warmer winter season for the lower two thirds of the country. We're right on the edge here in Reno.
While long range forecasting still has a ways to go, this prediction can give us an idea of what may be to come, which may include some snow and rain the next several months.
While there is no reason to freak out, we should plan for anything. It may be sunny and mild for now, but we know what the winter season can bring to the Sierra and the valley.
"We'll definitely get our storms this winter, but the character of the storms is the question. It's going to be a question of what we get," said meteorologist Marvin Boyd of the National Weather Service.
If this season is anything like last year, skiers would love a weak La Niña year,. According to Boyd, recent data shows only a handful of times that weak La Niña years didn't give us enough precipitation to reach average.
"We are in a neutral phase heading into a weak La Niña year, and historically, they do favor heavier precipitation over winter," said Boyd.
ENSO patterns can always change though, which means the winter outlook could change as well. Any kind of blocking pattern that sets up has a big influence on our weather.
If you're wondering, the stats show basically no correlation between what we get in October and the winter season. Ironically though, last October we had nearly two and a half inches of precipitation fall at the Reno Tahoe International Airport followed by an epic winter season. October a couple years ago was decent, and we had an average snow season. This year has been fairly dry with a couple tenths behind the 30 year average.
