Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the Truckee Meadows Wednesday, with a marginal risk of severe storms in northeast Nevada. Hail, gusty winds, frequent lightning, fire starts, and localized flash flooding is possible with any storms that do develop.
Storms are already popping up in the Reno area as of the lunchtime hour, reaching their peak coverage and intensity by 5pm. Most of the storms will be gone shortly after sunset, with a few lingering showers in the Basin and Range after 9pm. There is a 60% chance of rain in Reno on Wednesday and a 20% chance on Thursday. Rain totals will vary from a trace to a quarter of an inch. Localized areas could receive more. Along with the rain comes cooler air, with highs forecasted to stay ten to twenty degrees below average this week.
A large area of low pressure is digging south, cooling temperatures and keeping the air unsettled. The air needs cooler air above to rise. A low in the upper levels of the atmosphere typically provides us with cooler temperatures aloft and therefore rising air. The low is also providing us with enough lift to get the showers going as well. The larger the low the tougher it is to leave.Â
There is not as much moisture to work with as a couple weeks ago, but we have plenty to get a shower or thunderstorm going. Current precipitable water values are around .5 in northern Nevada, when the sweet spot for strong storms is around .8. The low is providing the storms with a northeasterly pathway to take and move along.
Unlike a couple weeks ago, these storms have the capability of moving quickly, because of the low close by. Lowering the flood risk, but it’s not zero. This also increases the risk of fire starts.
The low moves out of here by the weekend, but more unsettled weather is in the forecast Sunday and Monday. There is also a Red Flag Warning up for parts of eastern Nevada through 8pm Wednesday because of wind gusts around 35mph and low relative humidity values. Some of the storms on Wednesday could turn severe in northeast Nevada, where there is a marginal risk.
