Prediction Markets Polymarket

President Donald Trump loves to keep people guessing about his next policy moves, a reality TV, cliffhanger governing style that is helping “events” wagering companies, including some backed by one of his sons. Traders flocked to Polymarket this month to bet on whether Trump really was going bomb Iran back to the Stone Age or just call a ceasefire. The value of the company, in which Donald Trump Jr. has a stake, has increased tenfold from the summer, according to research firm PitchBook, and is now nearly $10 billion. A spokesman for Trump Jr. dismissed any concerns about him profiting off the business as left wing propaganda.

A U.S. soldier involved with the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has been granted bond, a day after being charged with using classified information about the operation to win more than $400,000 in an online prediction market. Federal prosecutors say Gannon Ken Van Dyke used his access to classified information about the January raid to win money on Polymarket. Van Dyke is a special operations soldier who is stationed at Fort Bragg in North Carolina. He’s now facing several federal charges and the possibility of years in prison. He said little during Friday's hearing and was assigned a federal public defender, who declined to comment.