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For Donald Trump, Tuesday’s elections will chart the course for the final two years of his presidency. If Republicans lose control of Congress, the rest of his time in office is likely to be consumed by Democratic-led investigations into his administration and his business dealings, and possibly even another impeachment. The spotlight will also begin its shift to Republicans and Democrats vying to replace him during the 2028 presidential campaign. But if Trump defies the political odds and retains GOP majorities, then he will emerge with a stronger grip on his party, which would owe much of its success to the president’s monthlong barnstorming of conservative states where he remains very popular with voters.