The Truckee Meadows COVID Risk Meter did not increase to "severe" - as predicted last week. Unfortunately, one reason for that was due to deaths, which opened up some hospital beds.
Last week, the Truckee Meadows COVID Risk Meter was in the "very high" range with an overall risk score of 13, which is the highest level we have reached so far.
The predictive model showed that we would go into the "severe" range of 13.5 this week, but it actually went down to 11.5.
The reason for that is not good.
"The reason the meter is down is because more people have died and that's how the beds got vacated. Had those people survived even just a few days more, three or four days more, our prediction tool would have been spot on and we would have been in purple," said Dr. Ron Aryel, a local pediatrician who also works on the Risk Meter.
"In the last seven days there were 51 deaths in Washoe County, and if you were to back add those into hospital visits, it would have definitely increased the burden as far as the metrics in the hospital, and would have made the scores look worse," said Dr. John Hess with Saint Mary’s Medical Group.
Another reason hospitalizations may have gone down is hospitals utilizing all available resources, including remote hospital care.
“A lot of patients that are currently being sent home in years past would have been admitted to the hospital, patients that are sent home on oxygen, on monitoring," said Dr. Hess.
The doctors involved in the Risk Meter attribute the stabilization in new COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations to the governor’s directives and residents modifying behavior to reduce the spread.
“We have seen some stabilization and even a decrease in test positivity measures, we seem to have seen a stabilization in hospitalizations, but I fear those numbers will most likely come back up in the coming weeks,” said Dr. Jeremy Smith with the Truckee Meadows Regional Planning Agency.
With the vaccine coming into Washoe County Tuesday and inoculations expected soon, some may want to start the process of getting back to normal, but officials warn against complacency.
“It's great to have hope, but I think we have to be careful of not letting our guard down now," said City of Reno Mayor Hillary Schieve.
Mayor Schieve also spoke of the possibility of becoming a “COVID Holler,” which means you may not die from the coronavirus, but have lasting symptoms or ailments like vertigo or breathing problems.
The mayor also emphasized the need for vigilance, and wearing masks. “It’s not a sign of weakness, it’s a sign of strength when you wear it, and wearing it for others. We also know it protects you when you wear it, and together we can get through this.”
The prediction model for the coming week shows the community staying in the "very high" range with scores of 11-11.5 through the 20th.
To see the Truckee Meadows COVID Risk Meter, you can visit this site here: http://covidriskmeter.org/
