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Emerson Hill Poll Finds Laxalt in the Lead Week Before Election Day

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KTVN's CBS affiliate in southern Nevada, KLAS 8 News Now, has worked with Emerson College Polling and The Hill to conduct surveys ahead of election day to see where voters stand with the candidates on the ballot. 

The latest survey of voters, published one week out from Election Day in the Silver State, finds that 50% of voters support Republican Adam Laxalt for US Senate while 45% support Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto.

Three percent are undecided.

With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Laxalt’s support increases to 51% and Masto to 46%. 

Since last month's survey, Laxalt has gained eight percentage points and Masto has gained four percentage points. 

In the 1st Congressional District, Republican Mark Robertson has a ten-point lead over incumbent Democrat Dina Titus, 51% to 41%. Five percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Robertson’s support increases to 54% and Titus to 42%.

Since the July Emerson/KLAS/The Hill survey, Titus has held at 41% while Robertson has gained 14 percentage points, from 37% to 51%. 

In the 2nd Congressional District, Republican Mark Amodei leads Democrat Elizabeth Mercedes Krause 58% to 34%. Two percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Amodei gains one point and Mercades Krause holds a third of support.

Since the July Emerson/KLAS/The Hill survey, Mercades Krause has lost two points of support while Amodei has gained 12 points, from 46% to 58%. 

In the 3rd Congressional District, 51% of voters plan to vote for Republican April Becker and 47% plan to vote for Democrat Susie Lee. Two percent are undecided.

With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Becker’s support increases to 52% and Lee’s increases to 47%. Since the July Emerson/KLAS/The Hill survey, Becker has gained 11 points of support, from 40% to 51%, while Lee has gained five points, from 42% to 47%. 

In the 4th Congressional District, 48% support Democrat Steven Horsford and 45% support Republican Sam Peters. Five percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Horsford leads 51% to 47%.

Since the July Emerson/KLAS/The Hill survey, Horsford and Peters have both gained six points of support, Horsford from 42% to 48%, and Peters from 39% to 45%.

Also according to the survey, President Joe Biden holds a 55% disapproval in Nevada; 40% approve of the job he is doing as president. 

For information from candidates on their positions and history in Nevada ahead of this election, connect with our one-stop-shop 2 News Voter Guide. 

The Emerson College Polling/KLAS-TV/The Hill Nevada poll was conducted October 26-29, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=2,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI), similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 2.1 percentage points.

The 1st Congressional District consisted of n=480, with a CI of +/- 4.4 percentage points.

The 2nd Congressional District consisted of n=530, with a CI of +/- 4.2 percentage points. The 3rd Congressional District consisted of n=510, with a CI of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The 4th Congressional District consisted of n=480, with a CI of +/- 4.4 percentage points.

The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, region, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced.

Data was collected using cell phones via SMS-to-web, an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, web survey via email, and an online panel.

Key Takeaways

  • Republican Mark Robertson has a ten-point lead over incumbent Democrat Dina Titus, 51% to 41%
  • In the 3rd Congressional District, 51% of voters plan to vote for Republican April Becker and 47% plan to vote for Democrat Susie Lee
  • President Biden holds a 55% disapproval in Nevada; 40% approve of the job he is doing as president

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