The lines are growing at Russian gas stations -- and so is the frustration and uncertainty as several months of Ukrainian attacks have set oil refineries ablaze and choked supplies for motorists across the vast country.
Fuel rationing has been introduced in many regions, with hourslong queues of cars snaking beside roads. Social media videos show drivers aghast at the lines or swearing at empty gas pumps and rising prices. The mayor of the Siberian city of Irkutsk even ordered portable toilets brought in to accommodate those in line.
The fuel crisis — unprecedented for a nation that is one of the world's biggest energy producers — has brought Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine home to ordinary Russians like few other events in the war, now in its fifth year.
It drew a rare admission from President Vladimir Putin, who acknowledged “problems persist for both motorists and businesses,” and “there are still queues at petrol stations, and finding the right grade of petrol isn’t always easy.”
He insisted the shortages are “not critical” and “temporary.”
But that appeared to do little to reassure at least one motorist in Moscow, the wealthy capital typically better-insulated from economic shocks than the rest of the country.
“I think the situation is not very good,” the motorist waiting in line told The Associated Press on Monday, the day after Putin's televised remarks.
“They say one thing on television, and in reality it’s another. ... People are queueing everywhere,” he added, declining to give his full name out of safety concerns.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday echoed that sentiment, writing on Telegram that “Putin can go on and on, claiming on TV that he supposedly has everything under control," but Russians can see that the war "has reached the point where even an oil state -- a gas station, as Russia used to be called -- is now facing gas shortages.”
Ukraine hits energy targets multiple times
An AP count shows over 50 reported attacks by Ukraine on oil refineries, depots, terminals and other energy infrastructure in Russia and the illegally annexed Crimean Peninsula since March. Often, the same facility was hit more than once -– such as the refinery in the Black Sea town of Tuapse that was struck four times.
The amount of crude oil Russia processed into fuel in June was down 25% from a year ago, to 3.95 million barrels per day — the lowest level in over two decades, said Gary Peach, oil markets analyst at Energy Intelligence.
“The outages are extraordinary,” he said.
Gasoline production has fallen 17% to 850,000 barrels a day, from 1.03 million a day a year ago — far short of what the domestic market needs. Russia exports relatively little gasoline.
About a third of Russia's oil refining capacity is offline, said Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory Ltd. Consultancy, noting that because refineries don't publicly confirm the extent of the damage, his estimate comes from anecdotal evidence and oil industry sources.
“It comes at a very critical time for the Russian economy, in that the agriculture season, particularly the harvest season, is now starting to ratchet up,” increasing demand, Weafer said.
Ukrainian officials describe the strikes as a campaign to pressure Moscow to end the war by undermining military logistics and supply lines and weakening its ability to mount front-line assaults.
In particular, Kyiv has sought to isolate Crimea, which was seized from Ukraine in 2014 in a move most nations don't recognize. Attacks this year forced the Moscow-installed authorities to enact fuel rationing on the peninsula in May and halt sales to civilians there altogether. Limited sales later resumed in the city of Sevastopol.
Attacks — and fuel shortages — spread
Ukraine carried out major drone strikes on Russia’s two largest cities, embarrassing the Kremlin with images of black plumes of smoke that circulated widely online, despite regulations restricting their publication.
A June 3 attack on a St. Petersburg oil terminal darkened the sky as Putin prepared to host his annual economic forum to attract foreign investment. On June 18, a similar cloud rose from the Moscow Oil Refinery on capital's outskirts, with greasy black droplets raining down.
By late June, some form of rationing was reported in over half of Russia's regions. Some slapped strict limits on all gas stations; in others, gas station chains limited how much fuel could be bought.
Officials blamed hoarding and panic-buying, urging motorists to fill their tanks only when needed.
Exports of gasoline and aviation fuel have been restricted, and authorities weighed banning diesel fuel exports, too.
Importing fuel was being considered. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said contacts with some countries were “underway,” calling the move “another step toward stabilizing the market and aimed at reducing panic-buying.”
Shortages in Siberia
The shortages have reached distant regions where no refineries were attacked by Ukraine.
Viktor Shkurenko, who owns retail stores and other businesses in the Omsk region, called announced limits on gasoline sales there to 40 liters (10.5 gallons) per vehicle “unexpected.”
“Nothing was bombed here. We have the biggest oil refinery in Siberia right here, and it gave us confidence that this fuel crisis won’t come to us,” he said, expressing worry about how limits could affect his businesses. As of Saturday, however, he said his company has not had any problems refueling its vehicles.
In the Siberian region of Zabayakalye, east of Lake Baikal, media reports said a garbage hauler suspended pickups and some bus services were curtailed.
In addition to ordering portable toilets outside gas stations, the city of Irkutsk raised public transport fares as of Wednesday, citing higher fuel costs.
Pavel Kharitonenko, acting head of Irkutsk's branch of the opposition Yabloko party, told AP he finds it easier to walk or use public transportation.
“I don't have the fuel, and I don't want to queue at gas stations,” he said. The Irkutsk region, home to a Rosneft oil refinery, has experienced acute shortages for several days, with lines growing, Kharitonenko said.
Repairs will take time
Putin said Russia's gasoline stockpiles are only 4% lower than what it had the same time last year. Weafer, the analyst, says that "reportedly, there are good supplies of fuel around the country. The problem is it’s in the wrong place."
Supplies need to be reallocated to regions experiencing shortages, and in a big country like Russia, “it's not something that can be done overnight," Weafer said.
“There should be enough, but it will take several weeks to get it from where it is to where it’s needed,” he says. “It’s just a huge logistics operation to do that.”
Fixing the war-damaged refineries is complicated. Ukraine's attacks damaged specialized equipment that is often imported, making repairs time-consuming and expensive as workarounds or replacements are sought by evading sanctions.
“They manage to get these things up and running, not necessarily at full capacity,” Peach said. “But the extent of the damage this time is so extensive that they won’t get back to winter levels of refining this summer.”
Some refineries aren't worth repairing until a ceasefire or armistice, he said, because they will just "get knocked down again.”
Repairing the Moscow refinery that supplied 40% of the fuel for the capital and the surrounding region is expected to take at least three months, Weafer said.
If there's no further damage to Russia's oil infrastructure, he estimated the shortages will last “probably throughout the summer" because demand from agriculture will likely remain high into September.
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Associated Press writers David McHugh in Frankfurt, Germany, and Hanna Arhirova in Kyiv, Ukraine, contributed.
