Some forecasts are harder to predict than others, and some needs more explanation to further understand. The main difference between your phone’s weather forecast and ours, is that your phone is all electronic, while we make our own. If your app says something different than our seven day, this is probably the number one reason, but there are other reasons too.
Since we live in a mountainous area with various micro climates, the forecast will vary between zip codes in Reno alone. Especially when it comes to wind or temperature forecasts. The wind also plays a role in the temperature forecast. Here at 2 News Nevada, we forecast for the airport regarding actual numbers on the seven day, but we also include neighborhood forecasts, because where you live will probably look a little different than the airport. We forecast for the airport, because that’s where climatological data like records are held.
Many apps asks you to put in your zip code, and if you just put in Reno, who knows where that the specific point is located. They may be basing it off the airport, downtown, or some random place. Every app is different. For example, lows Thursday morning ranged from 55° in Cold Springs to 63° at the Reno Airport. The low this morning in Arrowcreek was 60°. It will usually be hotter closer to the airport or downtown because of the heat island effect, which is another story all together.
High temperatures are the max temperature seen throughout the day, while the hourly forecast you see on your phone may be slightly cooler than the high itself. This is another reason your phone might look a little different.
Without a human looking over the forecast, you are pretty much putting all of your eggs in one basket with one model. As a meteorologist I look at as many models and observations as possible. I do my best to decide which model is handling the situation the best and if I need to modify what the models are saying. Heading into the weekend the models are in good agreement that highs will be in the 90’s and that it will get hotter next week. They do differ by at least a few degrees though. Over the years I’ve come to know which models handle certain situations better than others.
Most models are not as reliable past day three, and tend to flip flop. Since your app generally goes off of one model, you can expect the extended forecast to bounce around with huge swings and not be as accurate or certain. Remember this is only one model’s forecast, not showing you what the other possibilities are.
