The winter season can bring lots of joy to skiers but headaches to drivers. So what about this year? The long term forecast this year, is leaning wetter and warmer than average. It is more likely to be warmer than average in the Pacific Northwest and wetter than average in southeast Florida compared to Reno.
It is possible to have a snowy winter that breaks records, but the odds are not outstanding. Much of the country looks at El Niño or La Niña for the winter forecast, but because of our location, this is typically not a key player in our weather.
During an El Niño, the waters are warmer than normal in the Pacific and the polar jet stream is pumped up to the north, while there is a plume of moisture and Pacific Jet to the south. This allows for more precipitation in the south and drier conditions to the north.
The Truckee Meadows is located in between these two features, making it harder to predict what will happen. Which means it could go either way for us. If the jet wiggles a little to the south or north, that would mean a big difference in temperature and snow totals.
The Central Sierra Snow Lab located in Soda Springs, near Donner, has had some big snow years during both El Niño, La Niña, and neutral seasons. They have also had some of their driest seasons during El Niño, La Niña, and neutral set ups.
So can we rely solely on El Niño here? The answer is no, but the forecast is leaning towards wetter than normal. Both the 2016/2017 and 2022/2023 snow seasons were weak La Niña’s.
