Slow Start to Thunderstorm Season

We usually have a few thunderstorms in our area by end of the June or beginning of July but not this year.

Forecasting the weather is a lot like putting a puzzle together. All of the pieces have to fit together just right. So when it comes to thunderstorms, we need heat, moisture, instability and if they are strong, we need a forcing mechanism like a front. Moisture is the main piece we've been missing lately.

We've been so dry, it's been hard to find any clouds really. It's just taking a little bit longer for the moisture from the ocean to get here.

Thunderstorm season can start in late May and go towards late September, but this year it's a bit delayed. Including the Sierra, we typically have at least one or two thunderstorms in June but this year they've been a little bit harder to come by.

Over the past few weeks there's been a ridge to our southeast and near the four corners region. The ridge is blocking the ocean moisture from getting in here and is allowing lows and dry air to move in here from the west. But as the ridge lifts to the north, next week the storm track along with dry air will get pushed out of here and moisture will be able to come up from the south. 

Another thing that can happen is a warm layer of air develops aloft and keeps the air from rising. Similar to running into a wall, but if we're hot enough and there's enough force or momentum, sometimes the wall or lid can be broken.

It's been a dry start to the summer season, but if we look at the rain totals from the past several years there's been a lot of variation from year to year. Going forward, the forecast calls for more moisture moving in here next week.